PJ - mbcpeanut@hotmail.com, Ken - gir_dog@hotmail.com or playerwins@live.com
For reference:
A fair few fanboys are sharpening their Master Sword replicas this morning with the notion that Nintendo may have hit a wall in Japan. According to the 1up news story; Hudson, makers of the popular (in Japan) and million selling, Deca Sporta, have released the sequel to the tune of around 2,500 copies sold, less than 3% sell-through and 27,500 less than the first game.
On top of having already admitted themselves that the Wii situation in Japan is as bad as it's ever been, analysts in the west have been crowing about the alleged "Third-Party Challenge" other publishers must face when releasing software on a Nintendo system, using the sales figures of both Madworld and GTA: Chinatown Wars as jumping-off points.
So, all-in-all, Nintendo isn't having the greatest month, which means it's time for the alarmist culture of the games community to come out in full force. Nintendo is "teh doomed" and all that jazz. More importantly, it's also a bit of a comfort to know that maybe, just maybe, Nintendo isn't as infallible as they'd have us all believe.
In most cases, when news like this is brought down upon the community, you're going to get four responses: the first from the fanboys will be the typical defensive nonsense; the second will be trash talk from the opposing fanboys; the third will come from the alarmists who immediately begin calculating the exact time and date the company in question will implode; and the final response will be from the people who declare that everything is fine and everyone who thinks otherwise is insane. This time around, however, you've got a fifth and even more vocal response, and it's coming from every angle: Fuck Nintendo, this is what they deserve.
In some ways, it's hard to argue with that train of thought. The "hardcore" are the ones who kept Nintendo alive for well over a decade, while they were busy (see: wasting time) collaborating with Namco on Pac-Man VS and creating all types of throwaway GBA to GCN connectivity in 2003, their fans are the ones that stuck it out.
The counter argument for this point is, of course, to simply point you in the direction of the N64 and Gamecube, consoles that were lucky to see frequent use 3-4 times a year, and mention the fact that Nintendo have pretty much always starved their fan base between bounties of Mario, Metroid and Zelda. The difference this time being that now these Nintendo exclusives happen to be the only thing on offer for sole owners of the Wii. Where as the N64 and Gamecube could receive many third-party offerings that were on-par (and sometimes above) what was offered on competing consoles, now Nintendo console owners are often treated to games that wouldn't have been impressive half a decade ago, let alone in the HD-era of the current-gen.
And it's at this point that Nintendo has taken a rather unfortunate stumble. The Wii simply doesn't have the vitality to continue at the pace it was going. Having forsaken the upgrade that would allow them to receive third-party support on the level of the PS3 and 360, they doomed themselves to the fate which may very well be in front of them. If, and when, the casual market does go south on Nintendo, the hardcore will still be there to pick up the scant Nintendo release, but without the ability to obtain any of the next-gen games released on its competing platforms, there's no way it can hold its own. Surviving without a first-party release on the next-gen systems isn't a problem, as the third-party software dished out this generation has been nothing short of fantastic, surviving without said software on the Wii is like trying to cross a desert without water; maybe you'll come across a beautiful oasis every so often, but chances are you're going to dehydrate and be picked apart by vultures before you reach the next one.
Despite what many may have thought, and may still believe, the Wii isn't an introduction to gaming for the masses of house wives that buy them, it's simply a novelty, and novelties usually end up shoved in a closet or attic a few years down the line. So is that time nearly upon Nintendo? The release of their next batch of casual software should give some indication.
If the Nintendo apocalypse truly has come, and the casual market moves onto the next trend, then what? Does Nintendo finish out 2009 and perhaps 2010 with their current hardware before making a leap back into the competitive next-gen scene, or do they simply wallow in the mess they'll have created for themselves? It's yet to be seen, but it will certainly be interesting.
Pretty negative outlook but it's hard to deny honestly. I guess someone will be eating their foot in the next year or so. Either Nintendo or the people who fought against them.
Posted on 4/20/2009
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